PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Data
Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present \textbf{PolyBench}, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked m...
| Authors | Pu Cheng, Juncheng Liu, Yunshen Long |
|---|---|
| Primary category | q-fin.CP |
| Published | 3 April 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 3 April 2026 |
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