SuperAGI/llm-vs-prediction-markets

Price-blind LLM forecasts against prediction markets: main dataset This is the data behind the paper Sorting, Not Calibration: A Price-Blind Comparison of Language Models and Prediction Markets (arXiv link forthcoming; code and paper PDF at https://github.com/TransformerOptimus/llm-vs-prediction-markets). Eight language models were asked for the probability that a prediction-market question resolves Yes, without being shown the market price. Their forecasts are compared with the… See the full description on the dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/SuperAGI/llm-vs-prediction-markets.

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