Partial-Revelation Panel Forecasting: Predictive Information Gain, Allocation, and Coarsening-Consistent Operators
We study partial-revelation panel forecasting: given $k$ of $n$ annotator votes on the previous dialogue turn, predict the full count distribution of the next turn's panel. This cross-turn predictive information differs from same-item annotation value. Under any nested revelation mechanism, the population decrement satisfies $V(k)-V(k+1)=I(Y;R_{k+1}\mid X_k)$; a fitted model also contributes adjacent excess-risk differences. Coarsened-completely-at-random (CCAR) masking supplies the exchangeable random-rater interpretation used in our operators. We define coarsening-consistent panel operators with a closed-form Dirichlet-multinomial realization, learned completion, and rater-count transfe...
| Authors | Bin Wen, Dai-Qiao Zhang, Tien-Ping Tan |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 16 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 16 October 2026 |
Popularity, last 6 days
0 now. Counts as reported by the source, snapshotted daily by Silytics.
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 24 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.