Momentum, Commentary Tone, and Earnings Surprise in LLM Financial Forecasts
Which inputs drive a language model's financial forecast? We construct synthetic earnings announcements that independently reverse 20-day momentum, non-informational commentary tone, and whether fixed actual EPS beats a manipulated consensus. Six instruction/chat checkpoint conversions from four families (0.49-7.61B base parameters) receive 2,016 prompts each under a direct-answer Q8_0 protocol. The design includes 24 numerical blocks, six commentary pairs, profits and losses, rising and falling annual EPS, and two surprise sizes. Both A/B answer assignments and U/D cover all 384 primary scenarios per conversion. We estimate matched changes in conditional answer-prefix scores, not calibra...
| Authors | Alina Khaybullina |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 15 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 October 2026 |
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