Single-stage joint diffusion of sky images and clear-sky index for ultra-short-term irradiance forecasting: what the frame-to-irradiance stage discards
Sky-image irradiance forecasting is dominated by a two-stage design: a video-prediction model forecasts future sky frames, and a separately trained regressor maps those frames to irradiance. We propose a single-stage alternative that co-denoises the future sky-image and clear-sky-index sequences in one diffusion process, with an irradiance head that reads a denoised preview of the future sky rather than the noised diffusion state. The forecaster needs no regression stage and runs from sky images and deterministic covariates alone, with no measured irradiance at its input --- the situation at a site with a camera but no pyranometer. On 2023 SIRTA data the model reaches a pooled RMSE of $10...
| Authors | Kanawut Suwandee, Suwichaya Suwanwimolkul |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.CV |
| Published | 15 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 October 2026 |
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