Sharp and Stable Label-Free Calibration Certificates from Logical Coherence
Query-conditioned probabilistic predictors answer logically related questions one at a time, and labels to check their calibration are often missing. For each restriction on what a bettor's stakes may use, a minimax theorem identifies, for finitely supported laws of the answers, the sharp label-free lower bound on the corresponding calibration residual. On bundles of different events its mean, marginal and joint stages can separate strictly, and a bundle's bound cannot be attributed to one question without assumptions on the others. The sharp marginal bound is discontinuous in the answers, and no label-free lower bound continuous in the Wasserstein distance stays within a constant factor ...
| Authors | Takahiro Kato |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 15 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 15 October 2026 |
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