Ranked Right, Sized Wrong: Ensemble Spread Fails Silently at Streamflow Extremes
Deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory networks, are increasingly used for operational streamflow forecasting, with ensemble spread providing a signal of predictive uncertainty. As climate change increases the frequency of hydroclimatic extremes, these models will increasingly operate under flow conditions that are rare in their historical records. We therefore evaluate whether ensemble spread remains informative under increasing flows, examining both its magnitude relative to error and its ability to rank errors. Prediction error is approximately $2\times$ the corrected spread at ordinary flows and up to $4\times$ at the highest flows, with the discrepancy increasing w...
| Authors | Justin Gallant, Tyler Wilson |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.ML |
| Published | 14 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 14 October 2026 |
Popularity, last 2 days
0 now. Counts as reported by the source, snapshotted daily by Silytics.
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.