Fairness under Prediction Error in Predict-then-Optimize Pipelines
Fairness constraints in predict-then-optimize pipelines are necessarily enforced on predicted outcomes $\hat{y}$, since true outcomes $y$ are unobserved at decision time. We study whether a demographic parity constraint enforced this way continues to hold against $y$, and how the resulting violation scales with prediction error. Using a budget-constrained allocation problem solved as a linear program, we show empirically that the true-outcome fairness gap grows with prediction error $σ$ and saturates, well fit by $c(1 - e^{-σ/τ})$ with $c = 0.1545 \pm 0.0103$ and $τ= 3.9045 \pm 0.3745$; its mean is invariant to sample size while its variance decays at the standard $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate. We...
| Authors | Hilda Adwubi Osei |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 13 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 13 October 2026 |
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