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Paper · arXiv

Revisiting the Estimation of Unigram Surprisal in Computational Psycholinguistics

Contextual and unigram surprisal are standard predictors of reading time in computational psycholinguistics. While contextual surprisal is typically derived from neural language models, unigram surprisal is usually obtained from independent corpus counts. Although both quantities are deterministic functionals of a single underlying distribution---capturing conditional and marginal structure respectively---this practice breaks their probabilistic link and may introduce estimation error from the mismatch. We propose three principles for estimating unigram surprisal in psycholinguistic research, including the requirement that both quantities be derived from the same language model. We operat...

AuthorsZachary Hopton, Francesco Ignazio Re, Samuel Kiegeland et al.
Primary categorycs.CL
Published13 October 2026
Last updated at source13 October 2026
cs.CL
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