Beyond Single-Pathogen Forecasts: Predicting Shared Respiratory Hospital Burden from Influenza, COVID-19, and RSV
Co-circulating influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) create a shared hospital-admission burden, because beds, staff, testing capacity, and respiratory support are allocated to total demand rather than to one pathogen at a time. This makes respiratory forecasting a target-construction problem as well as a modeling problem: disease-specific forecasts preserve attribution, whereas hospitals also need a single planning signal for combined burden. We developed a supervised 1- to 4-week-ahead framework for weekly admissions and compared two total-burden strategies: summing independently generated pathogen-specific forecasts and forecasting the combined admission target dire...
| Authors | Gaurob Saha, MinJae Woo, Lior Rennert |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.AI |
| Published | 12 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 12 October 2026 |
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