Probabilistic Forecasting of Wildfire Size Using Conditional Flow Matching
In this work we present a probabilistic model for predicting the temporal evolution of wildfire size using conditional generative algorithms, namely flow matching. Rather than predicting spatially resolved fire progression, the proposed model forecasts a time series of fire acreage, substantially reducing computational cost and enabling efficient integration with downstream applications such as early warning systems and risk assessment tools. Given estimates of the fire size at the current and previous forecasting steps, alongside spatially averaged weather conditions, terrain characteristics, and fuel composition, the model predicts the change in fire area over a 3-hour interval. Trainin...
| Authors | Isaac Lee, Bryan Shaddy, Assad Oberai |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 11 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 11 October 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 14 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.