Is the Future Predictable? Modeling Future Predictability for Reliable Temporal Reasoning
Large language models (LLMs) remain unreliable when reasoning about the future. Existing models often overlook the difference among future states, committing to specific answers even when the queried facts are inherently volatile. To capture this challenge, we introduce ChronoRegime, a future-oriented temporal reasoning task that requires models to determine whether historical temporal evidence justifies commitment to a future answer. Furthermore, we propose Confidence-Aware Temporal Reasoning (CTR), a framework that estimates future predictability from temporal dynamics and regulates answer commitment accordingly. Rather than performing unconditional forecasting, CTR commits only when th...
| Authors | Yongyi Huang, Huaping Zhang, Wenyao Cui et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.CL |
| Published | 8 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 8 October 2026 |
Popularity, last 2 days
0 now. Counts as reported by the source, snapshotted daily by Silytics.
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.