Where Draft Trees Lose Target Mass: Exit-Guided Speculative Decoding

Tree-based speculative decoding verifies multiple draft continuations in one target-model pass, but finite trees built from draft scores face a fundamental draft-target mismatch. We ask whether better exact verification can increase acceptance on a fixed tree and how target feedback can improve the tree itself. Through a target-flow view, we identify a canonical exit law and prove that one plus target coverage sharply bounds the expected output-block length, including the bonus token, of any exact path verifier. All optimal verifiers share the same exit and bonus-token law, already attained by representative predraw-and-follow and sequential residual verifiers. This yields Tree Exit Verif...

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