Predictive Multiplicity in Cell-Fate Assignment: Label-Free Rashomon Sets and the Limits of Per-Cell Certification
Single-cell trajectory inference maps transcriptomic measurements onto developmental continua, yet configurations that fit the data equally well can assign conflicting cell fates. FateMultiplicity is a label-free framework that constructs a statistically admissible model set, or Rashomon set, without lineage labels, by evaluating model discrepancy on cross-fitted held-out genes under non-inferiority testing calibrated against random-seed variation. Multiplicity is large and depends more on the diversity of the model space than its size: twelve configurations of a second algorithm expose 20.0% of cells where twenty-four of the first expose 3.8%. Whether the per-cell certified fate margin F...
| Authors | Arjun Bhupatiraju, Abhiram Bhupatiraju |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 8 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 8 October 2026 |
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