From Shared Demand Patterns to Local Uncertainty: Probabilistic Load Forecasting by Mixing Compact Adaptations
Probabilistic load forecasting has been widely studied for power-system operation and planning, but customer- and transformer-level forecasting introduces a distinct scalability challenge. At these levels, load uncertainty is strongly affected by customer behavior, weather, and mixed load composition, making it difficult for a single shared model to capture heterogeneous patterns. Using separate probabilistic models can improve local accuracy, but becomes costly to train, store, update, and validate at scale. To address this challenge, we develop a scalable customer-aware forecasting framework that learns common demand behavior through a shared model while adapting only a compact subset o...
| Authors | Haoran Li, Zhe Cheng, Yang Weng |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 6 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 6 October 2026 |
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