Revealing After Overwriting: An Exponential POMDP OPE Lower Bound under History-Dependent Logging
Multi-step revealing can make off-policy evaluation tractable under memoryless logging. With history-dependent logging, state decodability and target-relevant evidence can separate. For every horizon $H\ge3$, we construct two exactly realizable POMDPs with four actions, at most four states per layer, a known logger, and a memoryless target. Action overlap, history coverage, and observation-only revealing remain bounded independently of $H$, yet the target values differ by $1/2$ and the KL divergence between the logged laws is $Θ(4^{-(H-1)})$, forcing exponential sample complexity. Logger memory makes states distinguishable, while reset erases the model-distinguishing evidence preserved by...
| Authors | Youyu Luo, Pengzhan Zhou, Zhida Qin et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 4 October 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 4 October 2026 |
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