Global Evaluation of AI and NWP Precipitation Forecasts During Atmospheric River Events
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) produce many of the world's most extreme precipitation events and hydrometeorological hazards. Although artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models have demonstrated skill comparable to or exceeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems for large-scale atmospheric variables, their ability to forecast AR-related precipitation remains insufficiently characterized globally. Here, we evaluate 24-hour precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS), Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), GraphCast, and Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) from Day 1 through Day 10 globally and across North America, Europe, and Australia and...
| Authors | Marina Vicens-Miquel, Taylor Mandelbaum, Amy McGovern et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.ao-ph |
| Published | 26 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 26 September 2026 |
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