Probability Contracts: Accuracy, Coherence, and Decisions Across LLM Interfaces
Equivalent probability requests can lead to different decisions even when both reports are valid. We introduce probability contracts, a benchmark that connects exact finite-world posteriors, validated event alignment, interface coherence, and failure-aware decision evaluation. Across four model-interface configurations on 1,000 worlds, Kev has lower aggregate canonical posterior error than Jev but larger complement and coarsening residuals; accuracy ordering varies by stratum. Jev's Event and Choice interfaces change the binary action on 32.8% of valid pairs at defer cost 0.10. Post-hoc analyses show that disagreement certifies only 11-52% of mean binary pair error and does not consistent...
| Authors | Han Chen, Yingrui Li |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 27 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 5 October 2026 |
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