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MaPP: A Unified Marginalized Posterior-Predictive Framework for Data-Efficient RLVR

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models but incurs substantial costs from rollouts and policy updates. Online prompt selection improves efficiency by using per-prompt Bayesian posteriors to predict difficulty and prioritize informative prompts. However, existing methods overlook how reliably learning signals are extracted from sampled responses. In GRPO, a response's advantage depends on both its own outcome and the randomly sampled outcomes of its peers through group normalization. Our theoretical and experimental analyses show that uncertainty in group composition introduces composition noise, a non-vanishing var...

AuthorsYangyang Ren, Haodong Zhu, Sheng Xu et al.
Primary categorycs.LG
Published28 September 2026
Last updated at source28 September 2026
cs.LG
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