MW-Nowcast: Six-hour ensemble nowcasting of extreme precipitation
Extending reliable nowcasting of extreme precipitation could provide critical additional time for warnings and emergency response during high-impact events such as flash floods. Radar-based generative machine-learning models have enabled skilful hyperlocal precipitation nowcasting, but accurate prediction of intense precipitation remains confined to the first few hours. Because storm-scale structure is predictable for longer than individual cells, a natural strategy is to predict that structure while generatively modelling only the uncertain local growth, decay, reorganisation and initiation of storms. Here we present Microsoft Weather Nowcast (MW-Nowcast), a six-hour ensemble radar nowca...
| Authors | Ning Wang, Zuliang Fang, Weixin Jin et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.ao-ph |
| Published | 28 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 28 September 2026 |
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