A Free Knob: Decoupling Calibration and Predictive Skill in Threshold-Based Evaluation
Many dense-prediction benchmarks evaluate rare events by pooling prediction and target over spatial blocks, thresholding each, and scoring the contingency table. At a fixed rare operating point, the max-pooled Critical Success Index (CSI) confounds spatial discrimination with amplitude calibration: sharp observations promote many blocks above threshold, while attenuated predictions from squared-error regression leave the same blocks below it. We repurpose classical monotone calibration as a symmetric audit: a post-hoc transform fitted on held-out data and applied separately to each system. The transform cannot reverse pixel ordering, so any contrast it reproduces cannot establish improved...
| Authors | Md Tanveer Hossain Munim, Bijoy Ahmed Saiem, Al-Amin Sany et al. |
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| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 27 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 27 September 2026 |
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