Nonparametric In-Context Learning under Growing Geometric Complexity: Minimax Optimality and Local Geometry-Adaptivity of Transformers

Transformers have become a central architecture for in-context learning (ICL), particularly through their state-of-the-art performance in large language models. This success motivates understanding how transformers exploit task-relevant structure in geometrically heterogeneous data. However, existing nonparametric ICL theory has largely focused on Euclidean domains or single-manifold models. To address this gap, we study the prediction problem under unknown local geometry, modeled by sample size-dependent mixtures of manifolds with heterogeneous dimensions, smoothness, and sampling masses. Under local separation and small-perturbation conditions, we establish a minimax lower bound capturi...

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