Conformal Prediction under Exponential-Tilt Joint Shift

Conformal prediction can lose coverage when the data distribution changes after deployment. We study adaptation using labeled source data and unlabeled target inputs, allowing both the input distribution and its relationship with outcomes to change. We use Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA), introduced for classification by Maity et al. (2023), to estimate structured distribution shifts. We compare using its estimated weights in conformal calibration with additionally tilting the source predictive distribution. Shared learned predictors, estimated weights, calibration samples, and test observations isolate the effect of tilting. Existing theory gives both procedures target cov...

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