Missingness-Aware Conformal Prediction Under Cross-Hospital Distribution Shift
Clinical measurements are recorded for some patients but not others, at rates that differ across hospitals, and marginal conformal coverage does not ensure coverage within groups defined by missingness. We propose a missingness-aware conformal calibration procedure for mortality prediction under cross-hospital distribution shift. It selects a measurement on an independent sample, groups patients by whether that measurement is recorded, and applies Mondrian calibration within each group, so no calibration outcome is reused. We evaluate the procedure across hospitals in eICU and across care units within one MIMIC-IV hospital, using three predictors. Relative to pooled calibration, it reduce...
| Authors | Liang You, Dongwen Ou, Hengyu Shi et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 25 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 25 September 2026 |
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