Mechanism-Aware Ensemble Conditioning for Data-Limited Emulation of Extreme Events
Extreme events in chaotic systems are difficult to learn from short trajectories because they are controlled by transient finite-time instability rather than by frequently observed bulk dynamics. We propose a mechanism-aware conditioning plug-in framework that turns a nudged coarse ensemble into a non-intrusive sensor of local instability geometry. In the small-noise regime, the ensemble covariance aggregates the same finite-time deformation kernels that govern local instability, providing a Jacobian-free proxy for the local amplification structure around a synchronized coarse trajectory. A small FiLM module injects statistics of this ensemble geometry into an otherwise unchanged backbone...
| Authors | Isabella S. Thiel, Juan Bello-Rivas, Yannis G. Kevrekidis et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 25 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 25 September 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.