TW3Cast: A Frozen Router of Lightly Fine-Tuned Foundation Models for Time-Series Forecasting on GIFT-Eval, Selected Entirely on the Training Split

TW3Cast is a time-series forecasting system that reaches position 3 of 130 entries on the GIFT-Eval benchmark by mean MASE rank, as of 2026-09-14. The two entries above it belong to the leaderboard's agentic category, multi-step systems that use agents or language models to reason about, generate or select forecasts. TW3Cast runs no agent and no language model. Its selection is a table computed once on the training split and then frozen, and its experts are public foundation models lightly fine-tuned on those training splits. For each of the 97 dataset, frequency and horizon configurations, the table serves one of four modes: a specialist, which is a LoRA or full fine-tune of Chronos-2, T...

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