Evaluation Choices Decide the Forecasting Leaderboard: Evidence from a Production Marketplace Panel
A forecasting benchmark reports which method won. We show that the answer is set by the evaluator's choices before any model is fitted. We benchmark 24 forecasting methods and one textbook reference, including six 2025-era time series foundation models, on a production marketplace panel of 1,887 business customers over 67 months. We hold the data, the horizon and the period fixed, and vary only the evaluation design. Three choices each reverse or dissolve a headline conclusion. Changing the unit of analysis from the market total to the individual customer moves our production baseline from second of nineteen, beaten by nothing, to twenty-third of twenty-five. Nineteen of its twenty-four c...
| Authors | Md Rezwanul Islam, Wael Mohammed |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 20 August 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 20 August 2026 |
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