Certified Against Which Oracle? Execution Labels Set the Reported Risk of Conformal Abstention for Text-to-SQL
A conformal abstention certificate for text-to-SQL is only as truthful as the correctness labels it is calibrated on. The uncertainty pipelines that read confidence off execution consistency take those labels from the single database a benchmark ships, an oracle known to be lenient. We run a preregistered intervention on Spider-Realistic, swapping that database for the benchmark's distilled multi-instance test suite. Across four SQL-specialist checkpoints and two split schemes, the swap raises the certificate's held-out risk 2.73 to 10.23 points above the risk its own labels report. Neither oracle reports the risk experts assign. Under blinded labels from two SQL experts, a certificate ca...
| Authors | Jiamiao Liu, Dewen Qiao, Yu Zhang et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 22 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 22 September 2026 |
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