Protocol before progress: leakage-aware evaluation of AIS trajectory prediction
Reported gains in vessel-trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data are credited to new architectures, but the evaluation protocol is rarely measured as a source of error reduction. We build a leakage-aware protocol with vessel-, time- and region-disjoint splits and apply it to two corpora with different traffic: 31 days of Danish national AIS traffic and 30 days of US Gulf coast traffic off Houston and Galveston. On both, we audit TrAISformer, GATransformer, and controlled AISFormer-inspired reconstructions. Three protocol effects appear in both corpora. First, TrAISformer's best-of-16 oracle decoder lowers error by a factor of 2.1-3.2 relative to greedy decodi...
| Authors | Zobeir Raisi, Vali Mohammad Nazarzehi Had |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 22 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 22 September 2026 |
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