Climate Variability Modulates the Impact of Price Spikes on Food Insecurity
Climate variability influences whether a market disruption escalates into a food crisis, yet broad climate patterns like El Niño, tracked months before they alter hydro-climatic conditions, are still not incorporated as an early-warning component in food-security responses. We address this gap by introducing sensitivity regimes, a stratification of regions by the direction and strength of their vegetation response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and using them to estimate how food price spikes affect acute food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa. Integrating remote sensing, socioeconomic data, and causal machine learning, we find that in regions where ENSO systematically suppresses...
| Authors | Jordi Cerdà-Bautista, Vasileios Sitokonstantinou, Homer Durand et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 21 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 21 September 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.