Marginal Calibration Does Not Compose: Hidden Dependence in Modular Robot Navigation
Robotic systems are typically composed of multiple independently developed modules that work together to perceive, predict, and act in the environment. Although each module may perform reliably in isolation, composing them does not necessarily preserve uncertainty calibration at the system level. In this work, we show that well-calibrated component interfaces do not necessarily produce calibrated downstream behavior after composition. Using a moving-obstacle prediction pipeline, we demonstrate that position and velocity estimators can each appear well calibrated individually, yet differences in how their error are correlated lead to substantially different estimates of future-state uncert...
| Authors | Rista Baral |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.RO |
| Published | 20 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 20 September 2026 |
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