Knowledge-Graph-Augmented Chronos-2 for HEC-RAS Surrogate Forecasting
We investigate whether coupling a time-series foundation model to hydraulic project knowledge improves surrogate forecasting of HEC-RAS water-surface elevation (WSE). We present KG-Chronos-2, which combines a frozen Chronos-2 predictor with exact-state residual decoding, graph-conditioned historical retrieval, and input-aligned correction. We compare the method with persistence, a residual LSTM, project-conditioned recurrent GeoFNO, a hydraulic DCRNN-style model, and frozen Chronos-2. Task-specific fitting uses the 2008 simulation. Evaluation covers 64 fixed 24-hour windows from the 2011 and 2002 simulations at 4,675 cross sections in 71 reaches on a shared geometry. KG-Chronos-2 achieves...
| Authors | Edward Holmberg, Elias Ioup, Mahdi Abdelguerfi |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 18 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 18 September 2026 |
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