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SurgeGen: A Hybrid Generative Diffusion Framework for Storm Surge Scenario Synthesis

Predicting storm surge induced by landfalling tropical cyclones is crucial for flood mitigation and coastal risk management. Traditionally, physics-based numerical models simulate storm surge by solving the Navier--Stokes equations using numerical methods, but these simulations are computationally expensive. Generative models are promising for storm surge emulation because they can generate diverse realizations rather than producing a single deterministic prediction. However, their use for storm surge emulation remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we leverage diffusion models for storm surge surrogate modeling, combining a baseline prediction stage with conditional generation to pro...

AuthorsShunan Zheng, John J. Hasenbein
Primary categorymath.DS
Published3 September 2026
Last updated at source3 September 2026
math.DScs.LG
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