Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data
Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pr...
| Authors | Elizaveta Sivak, Emily M. Cantrell, Thomas Emery et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 1 September 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 1 September 2026 |
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