Explainable Machine Learning for Broadband Adoption Disparities: Tract-Level Prediction and SHAP-Based Factor Profiling

The United States has allocated approximately $65 billion through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for broadband expansion, yet evidence-based methods for targeting these investments remain underdeveloped. This paper presents an explainable machine learning framework for profiling broadband adoption disparities at census-tract granularity across 83,359 tracts nationwide. Using 65 socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure features derived from the American Community Survey 2022, we train a LightGBM model under spatial five-fold cross-validation, achieving R^2 = 0.533 and Spearman rho = 0.763; state-held-out cross-validation (51 folds) confirms generalization (R^2 = 0.525). T...

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