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Paper · arXiv

When Does Context Routing Help? A Systematic Study of Multi-Modal Fusion in Time Series Forecasting

Multi-modal time series forecasting methods integrate auxiliary context into temporal predictions through increasingly sophisticated fusion mechanisms. A growing body of work reports substantial gains, yet it is often unclear whether they reflect genuine use of the context or incidental architectural effects. We ask a narrower, checkable question: when can auxiliary context help a forecaster at all? We identify two dataset-level conditions that must both hold: (1) the target is not dominated by a last-value shortcut (low autocorrelation rho_h), and (2) the context carries information about the target beyond history (non-zero conditional mutual information delta; when delta=0 no predictor ...

AuthorsRuizhe Zhou, Gaoyuan Du, Xiaoyang Liu et al.
Primary categorycs.LG
Published25 August 2026
Last updated at source25 August 2026
cs.LGcs.AIstat.AP
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