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Paper · arXiv

Deep-MKV-TS: Path-Dependent McKean--Vlasov Control for Financial Time Series Generation

We introduce Deep-MKV-TS, a path-dependent McKean-Vlasov framework for financial scenario generation. The stochastic dynamics are chosen by matching selected path and volatility features of generated scenarios to those observed in the data. Starting from an interpretable reference model, Deep-MKV-TS preserves the reference drift and adjusts its volatility, while a regularization penalty limits unnecessary departures from the calibrated dynamics. We solve the resulting control problem using a neural, sample-based implementation of the stochastic maximum principle. We validate the method against an exactly computable oracle. On Heston and Heston-mixture models, Deep-MKV-TS substantially red...

AuthorsSamer El Boustany, Théo Basseras, Samy Mekkaoui et al.
Primary categoryq-fin.CP
Published19 August 2026
Last updated at source19 August 2026
q-fin.CPcs.CEcs.LGmath.OC
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