Interpretable AI predicts a 2026 summer dry anomaly in central China
Seasonal precipitation anomalies are largely regulated by atmospheric circulation, which dynamical models predict with greater reliability than precipitation itself. Here, we employ a deep learning model that translates dynamical circulation predictions into precipitation estimates. Predictions initialized from March to May consistently indicate a dry anomaly over central China in summer 2026. Retrospective evaluations revealed higher predictive skill in the analogue years, which also tended to feature central equatorial Pacific warming persisting from the preceding winter into summer. This warming favors an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific-South China Sea-Sou...
| Authors | Anran Wang, Wen Shi, Yong Luo et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.ao-ph |
| Published | 19 August 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 23 August 2026 |
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