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Consistent Model Chasing Is Minimax Optimal: The Exact Value of Scalar Adversarial Adaptive Control under Large Parametric Uncertainty

We solve exactly a fundamental problem of adaptive control against adversarial disturbances: regulate the scalar system $x_{t+1} = ax_t + u_t + w_t$, $x_0=0$, $\|w\|_\infty \le 1$, where the constant pole $a \in [-Δ, Δ]$ is unknown in sign and magnitude and $Δ$ is arbitrarily large. Elementary as the system looks, the least worst-case peak $\|x\|_\infty$ that a causal controller can guarantee against an adversarial pair $(a, w)$ (the value of this game) has, to our knowledge, never been determined for any adaptive control problem with parametric uncertainty of arbitrary size under this criterion; existing theory supplies stability certificates, gain bounds, and regret rates, not the value...

AuthorsDimitar Ho
Primary categoryeess.SY
Published13 August 2026
Last updated at source13 August 2026
eess.SYcs.LGmath.OC
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