Which Site, and When: A Free-Satellite-Data Test of Himalayan Glacial Lake Bursts, Landslides, and Ice Floods
Two free satellite signals carry real information about glacial-lake outburst risk in the Nepal Himalaya: radar interferometry sees a moraine dam slowly sagging, and satellite weather marks the weeks when a primed lake is under stress. A companion feasibility study found that deformation indicates which lake is destabilizing and weather indicates when it is at risk, but proposed no predictive model. To address this gap, we propose and evaluate models that predict which site is susceptible and when a trigger arrives. We test three related hazards on free data alone: large moraine- and ice-dammed bursts, rainfall-triggered landslides, and smaller floods from ponds on and around a glacier. E...
| Authors | Matthew Kahn, Milan Arjel, Nirmala Adhikari et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 12 August 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 12 August 2026 |
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