Every pooling rule has its world: matching probability combination rules to situations and stakes
Systems often need to combine two numerical assessments of the same yes/no question. The appropriate formula depends on what the numbers represent and on how the sources are related. Averaging is correct when one of several alternative interpretations applies; multiplying odds is correct when probability reports are based on conditionally independent evidence and a common prior; and probabilities of alternative successful derivations require their dependence or shared evidence to be taken into account. We state the assumptions behind several common combination rules and derive the corresponding combined probabilities. Two groups of Monte Carlo experiments address different questions. Firs...
| Authors | Tanel Tammet, Priit Järv, Dirk Draheim |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.ME |
| Published | 11 August 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 11 August 2026 |
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