When Does Forecasting Reveal Temporal Structure? A Stability Analysis of Time-Series Structural Selection
Forecast accuracy is often used as a proxy for temporal structure discovery, but predictive performance and structural identifiability are not equivalent. Different temporal mechanisms can achieve similar forecast errors, while small forecast differences may still contain sufficient information for recovery. In this work, we study when forecast-only structural selection can be trusted. We show that a vanishing forecast margin does not necessarily imply structural ambiguity, and establish a stability perspective that evaluates structural separation relative to uncertainty in the selection objective. This perspective provides both a sufficient condition for reliable selection and a continuo...
| Authors | Qipeng Qian, Yuntao Qian |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 11 August 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 21 August 2026 |
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