Distribution-Free Conformal Prediction for Steel Fatigue Strength: Marginal Validity Is Not Enough
Predicting fatigue failure in steel components experimentally is costly, requiring testing across multiple compositions and processing conditions, spurring research on data-driven prediction models. Studies using the NIMS MatNavi steel fatigue dataset often report high point-prediction accuracy but rely on aggregate error metrics, leaving uncertainty about the reliability of individual predictions and whether accuracy is consistent across the fatigue-strength spectrum. This paper is the first to apply conformal prediction to steel fatigue strength, comparing seven interval-construction methods across 50 independent data splits and distinguishing marginal coverage from coverage within spec...
| Authors | Irene Boruah |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.AP |
| Published | 5 August 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 14 August 2026 |
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