A Spatial Persistence Gradient in European Warming Consistent with North Atlantic Cold-Blob Influence
Europe is warming faster than the global mean, yet the spatial organisation of this acceleration remains incompletely understood. Using ERA5 reanalysis for 1950--2024 across 28 IPCC AR6 European sub-regions, we identify two connected empirical results. First, the DFA1 Hurst exponent of interannual temperature residuals is strongly and negatively associated with the 1996--2024 warming rate ($r=-0.792$, $p=5.1\times10^{-7}$). High-persistence, mainly Atlantic-proximal regions warm more slowly, whereas low-persistence continental regions warm faster. This relationship is robust to five residualisation schemes, three memory estimators, leave-one-region-out analysis, and five null-test familie...
| Authors | Mauricio Herrera-Marín, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Diego Rivera |
|---|---|
| Primary category | physics.geo-ph |
| Published | 28 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 28 July 2026 |
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