A robust association between LLM use and scientific productivity: Assessing stopping-time selection
Renault, Bergeaud, and Bosquet (hereafter RBB) argue that dating LLM adoption as the first month in which an author's abstract is flagged induces a stopping-time selection that can produce a positive event-study path even when there is no causal effect. Although this mechanism is mathematically possible, it does not constitute proof of a null effect. Recalibrating RBB's own random placebo to the detector's realized flag rate, we show that the measured association stays well above this benchmark, so the artifact is too small to explain the productivity changes. We further re-estimate the association between LLM adoption and productivity with a series of complementary designs in which the t...
| Authors | Keigo Kusumegi, Xinyu Yang, Paul Ginsparg et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.DL |
| Published | 31 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 31 July 2026 |
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