Psych-ECA: A Reproducible Semi-Synthetic Benchmark for Synthetic Control Arms in Longitudinal Psychiatry
External and synthetic control arms (ECAs) are entering psychiatric drug development, but the field lacks a benchmark that evaluates the properties regulators care about: not only how accurately a method reconstructs untreated trajectories, but whether its uncertainty is calibrated, whether it is robust to the informative observation times common in mental-health records (sicker patients are seen more often), and what false-positive rate it induces in go/no-go trial decisions. Real psychiatric trial data (e.g. STAR-D and registry cohorts) require credentialed access and lack ground-truth counterfactuals, so, following established semi-synthetic benchmarks in causal inference (IHDP, ACIC, ...
| Authors | Aakash Bhagat, Shashank Choudhary |
|---|---|
| Primary category | stat.AP |
| Published | 7 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 7 July 2026 |
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