A Persona-based Rate Action Index
We propose an index for predicting the U.S.\ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to hike/hold/cut the current federal funds target rate based on how a collection of personas responds to current market conditions. To construct the index, we collected a new dataset consisting of nearly $25{,}000$ retrievable chunks from publicly available data. We partition the data into per-member corpora and use each as the retrieval database of a generative system we refer to throughout as a ``persona''. We first evaluate the personas across two complementary components of likeness: identifiability and detectability. Each persona's behavior is highly attributable (average member-conditional rec...
| Authors | Hayden Helm, Andrew Dassori |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.MA |
| Published | 29 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 29 July 2026 |
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