TWICE: Two-Clock, Two-Window Learning for Long-Horizon Conversion Prediction in Online Advertising
Long-horizon conversion prediction under delayed feedback creates a two-clock, two-window learning problem in online advertising. A short base observation window releases recent clicks on the click clock before their outcomes mature, whereas conversions continue to arrive on the conversion clock throughout a longer target conversion window. The click clock provides timely but partially observed status supervision. The conversion clock reveals long-tail delays, but the delay composition within an arrival-time slice is weighted by historical click cohorts with different traffic volumes and target-window conversion rates. We present TWICE, a framework that factorizes long-horizon post-click ...
| Authors | Kaiyuan Li, Kun Wang, Zhongbo Wang et al. |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 28 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 28 July 2026 |
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