Beyond Output-Space Calibration: Spectral Evidence Bundling for Selective Reliability Estimation in Time-Series Classification
Post-hoc calibration for time-series classification usually remaps output scores, but deployment decisions such as trust, abstention, and review depend on whether a confident prediction is supported by the current temporal signal. We address three time-series reliability gaps: identical confidence values can hide different temporal support, average calibration can miss false high-confidence errors, and output-space recalibration offers limited input-linked auditability. We introduce a validation-gated fixed-label reliability policy that keeps the backbone prediction unchanged while estimating whether it should be trusted. The method combines output-side cues with whole-sample spectral des...
| Authors | Filippo Cenacchi, Longbing Cao, Runze Yang |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 29 June 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 29 June 2026 |
Silytics shows public metadata from arXiv and links to the original. Information may be incomplete or out of date. Last refreshed 17 October 2026. Licenses and terms of the original apply to the work itself. Not financial, legal or professional advice.