Calibrated Alzheimer's Conversion Risk in Mild Cognitive Impairment: Persistent Homology of Clinical Trajectories with Conformal Guarantees
Background. Predicting conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is central to trial enrichment and care planning, yet existing models provide no individual-level uncertainty estimates and rarely include transparent leakage audits. We introduce the first application of persistent homology to longitudinal clinical trajectory point clouds for this task, and the first split-conformal individual risk guarantee for any AD-conversion model. Methods. We analysed 741 MCI subjects (240 converters, 32.4%) from ADNI with a uniform 4-year follow-up cap. Five leakage sources were corrected; without them a naive pipeline achieved AUC=0.934, inflated by +0.075. Vietoris...
| Authors | Navin Bondade |
|---|---|
| Primary category | cs.LG |
| Published | 20 July 2026 |
| Last updated at source | 20 July 2026 |
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